INTRODUCTION

This state of affairs is inimical to our type of civilization - if not throughout the world as a whole, at any rate in the continent of Europe. Whatever may have been its influence in the past, whether or not it ever had a civilizing function, to-day the nature of war is such that the very possibility of its occurrence is incompatible with the persistence of what has been called the Great Society. If war breaks out, it brings chaos and destruction. If peace is maintained but the danger of war persists, the measures of preparation which modern technique makes necessary, must gradually absorb the whole energies of the nations; wealth must diminish, civil liberty be limited, the arts decay and the natural sciences, which should be the liberators of humanity, be devoted almost wholly to its destruction. We must remove this danger or we must eventually revert to simpler forms of society. But to do this we must remove the underlying conditions which make war possible. It is not enough to bring about a temporary alleviation of the tension by military victory and by power groupings of the traditional kind, essential 15 THE ECONOMIC CAUSES OF WAR as that may be at the moment. For, as we kno'Vv to our , cost, military victory by itself settles nothing permanently; and power groupings are inherently unstable. If there are underlying conditions conducive to conflict, then, sooner or later,. conflict will emerge. After the great struggle of 1914-18 was over, it was thought that there would be no more war in our generation. But to-day war has once more broken out and the jibes of those who urged that war was to be regarded as a permanent feature of human society appear to be justified. For those who believe that there is still hope of improvement in more knowledge of the working of human institutions, there can be no more urgent task than the discovery of the ultimate causes of war.

2 The Object of the Essay It is the aim of these chapters to attempt to contribute to this solution. But the problem will be approached from a special point of view. They will not begin by inquiring concerning the causes of war in general, though that is a problem upon which it is hoped eventually to throw some light. They will begin rather by inquiring to what extent war can be regarded as being due to economic causes either particular types of economic motives or particular types of institutional settings amid which such motives may be conceived to be engendered. This will inevitably involve some discussion of the part played by non economic factors; for there is no desire to claim an ex clusive status for economic causes. And, before the end is reached, it will be found necessary to inquire concerning certain wider political and sociological. questions. But the main structure of the argument, if not its ultimate focus of reference, will be concerned with economic causes.

16 INTRODUCTION Two considerations I have dictated this mode of pro cedure. In the first place, it seeins reasonable to suppose that inquiry on tbest; lines ~ay be fruitful. Ec()nomic"factors underlie so many of the happenings. of social life,'\hat it is plausible to assume that here too they may be found to be operative. It would be very surprising if we were to find that there were no economic factors involved in the causation of any wars. An inquiry which commences from the economic aspect therefore has some prospect of starting at least on firm earth. But, beyond this, there is another reason which perhaps has weighed even more in determining the form of the present investigation. At the present time it is widely believed that the occurrence of war in our own times is exclusively, or at least predominantly, due to a special kind of economic cause. It is thought that the institutions of private property and the market, in their present stage of development, tend inevitably to breed international conflict - that war is a necessary by-product of the capitalist system. This belief is held, not merely by the adherents of a particular political creed but by many of the most disinterested and sensitive spirits of-our day.

'Bourgeois born and in my fifties', writes Mr. E. M. Forster, 'I feel that communism will submerge all the things I have learnt to love. But I am deeply impressed by the com munist argument which ascribes war to the capitalist system and I feel that the hysteria which prevents people from examining this argument ... is most discreditable.' 1 It is impossible to exaggerate the importance of this con tention. Ifit is true, then the main duty of our generation is to sweep away the institutions which give rise to this horror. If it is false, it may lead to a misdirection of effort 1 Time and Tide, November 23rd, 1935. 17 THE ECONOMIC CAUSES OF WAR which divides the forces of goodwill and diverts attention from the real causes of conflict. Surely it deserves the most $Cr.UHulou~\ attention by all Who ;'~ave any com~~~t"~~~;'g~~:t~tft~":;e:n~~~~~h has dictated the form in which it is cast. 3 The Plan of Inquiry The plan of the essay is very simple. It will begin with an exposition of the main outlines of the relevant Marxian theories, in particular the theory of imperialism which receives its classical exposition in the work of Lenin. It will then go on to test this theory in the light of history.

The result of this test being largely negative, an attempt will then be made to formulate an explanation of the economic causes of war at once more comprehensive in scope and mo.re in correspondence with the facts. Finally inquiry will be made into the political and social setting in which the ca:uses diagnosed are likely to be operative. The appendix explains certain matters of definition and procedure which have been assumed throughout the main argument. 18 CHAPTER II THE MARXIAN THEORY OF IMPERIALISM I The Economic Interpretation of War BELIEF that war may be due to economic causes is not of modern origin. The desire for gain has so often played a role in the generation of group conflict that it would be remarkable if its operation in this respect had not fre quently been recognized. In fact, of course, this has often happened. From very early times historians have ex plained particular wars in terms of an economic motive; and, when the causes of war in general have come under discussion, the desire for wealth and material betterment has received at least its due share of recognition. It is indeed arguable that many of the confusions relating to the economic causes of war in modern times derive from the naive application to present-day conditions of modes of explanation chiefly applicable to conditions of the past.