Time Lapse Thinking; L.E. Read

LEONARD E. READ Time-Lapse Thinking Economics . . . is the science of tracing the effects of some proposed or existing! policy not only on some special interest in the short ruh, but on the general interest in the long run. - Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson MOST politico-economic policies in our time are in response to the de mands of this or that special in terest or pressure group, while the general interest is ignored. Fur ther, the long-run effect is over looked in order that short-run "gains" may be achieved. This is the road to disaster, and no turn about is possible short of a greater reliance on time-lapse thinking. Let Walt Disney's demonstration explain what I mean by time-lapse thinking. Disney planted a rose seedling and made a motion picture of its growth, flicking a single frame every day or so until the plant was mature and the rose had bloomed. When he showed this film on a screen at sixteen frames per second, we then witnessed the whole beautiful phenomenon - the unfolding of a rosebud - in a minute or two. Disney's time-lapse photography enabled us to experi ence an improvement in frequency perception; that is, the viewers were able to see the long-run ef~ fects of short-run causes. This is why I suggest the urgency of some time-lapse thinking.

While time-lapse photography and time-lapse thinking are simi lar in tha t each collapses time, there is an important difference. The former reduces the time be tween causes and effects that have already taken place; the latter re quires that time be collapsed as related to future effects of pres ent causes. True, no person has a crystal ball, nor could he read it if he had one. Yet, I believe there is a way of foreseeing what ef fects certain actions will have. Carry this belief a step further. The easiest and ·perhaps the only 719 720 THE FREEMAN December way to be certain that a short-run action is a gain or loss is to dis cover what its long-run effects will be. Why? ,There is no such thing as a short-run gain that is not also a long-run gain, and vice versa. As Emerson wrote, "The end pre-ex ists in the means." It is axiomatic that constructive service of the in dividual's purposes or of the gen eral interest can never emerge from destructive means. Thus, collapse time, resort to time-lapse thinking, to evaluate day-to-day actions.

No Future in It To illustrate: Is thievery a short-run gain for the thief? Most thieves think it is or they would not steal. Having a stunted per ception, they fail to realize that the loss in life-values far exceeds the gain in loot. Were the thief capable of time-lapse thinking, he would clearly see that a popula tion of thieves would perish. The long-run effect would be disas trous; therefore, the short-run action - the means - is disastrous and evil. Direct theft is practiced by com paratively few of the total popu lation. Most people find it unnec essary to do time-lapse thinking to put thievery in its proper place. However, millions of these same people not only condone but par ticipate in legal plunder, that is, they urge government to do the looting for them. They see nothing wrong with this; indeed, they re gard the loot as a gain. Perhaps the only way for them to set their thinking straight is a resort to time-lapse thinking.

In a nutshell, let these millions project their practices into the fu ture - everyone doing what the few are now doing, that is, every one being paid for not working. Clearly, were there no work there would be no loot to take, nothing to plunder. As with thievery, all would perish. By the simple de vice of collapsing time, the future effect of their present actions would become obvious. Thus, liv ing off others is not even a short run gain. A few paltry dollars at the price of surrendering respon sibility for self - the very essence of being - amounts to an enor mous net loss. A TotaJ Loss Many farmers get paid for not farming and regard the payments as gains. Apply this political nos trum to all productive activity, not only getting paid for not farming but getting paid for not generat ing electricity, not drilling for and refining oil, not making clothes ' and autos, and so on. Project such practices into the future and ob serve the self-evident consequences.

Time-lapse thinking will reveal 1973 TIME-LAPSE THINKING 721 the fallacy; it will serve as an eye opener, a needed shock treatment. All losses now! Reflect on the businessmen who seek political protection against competi tion, domestic as well as foreign. Assume the universality of this craving for short-run "gains" and then assess the fu ture. What would be the economic picture? What would it look like? Ancient feudalism or medieval mercantilism or modern commu nism! No need for more illustrations; a thousand and one could be cited. Time-lapse thinking not only is invaluable in deciding on sound economic policy but can be used to arrive at the correctness of pres ent actions in all fields - education, religion, politics, or what ever. From such thinking stems this helpful conclusion: fret not for the morrow, only for today. Why? Be cause the morrow is a life-style edifice structured from today's ac tions. Wrote Addison: "This is the world of seeds, of causes, and of tendencies; the other is the world of harvests and results and of per fected and eternal consequences."

Th us, if today's actions are as right as one can m~ke them, then the morrow is as good as it can be. My gratitude to Henry Hazlitt for his philosophy, and to Walt Disney for his technology. I have merely strung their pearls of wis dom on a single thread. I iDEAS ON LIBERTY Overlooking Secondary Consequences IN ADDITION to these endless pleadings of self-interest, there is a second main factor that spawns new economic fallacies every day. This is the persistent tendency of men to see only the immediate effects of a given policy, or its effects only on a special group, and to neglect to inquire what the long-run effects of that policy will be not only on that special group but on all groups. It is the fallacy of overlooking secondary consequences. In this lies almost the whole difference between good economics and bad. HENRY HAZLITT, Economies in One Lesson \ for POLITICALPEACE: RIDGWAY K. FOLEY, JR.