Those Fellows With Dark Hats; J. Sparks

478 sons who held futures contracts on the New York Sugar Exchange during a typical day were dis closed. Of the nearly 1700 specu lators who owned contracts, only about 12 per cent could be termed professionals, Le. connected with the sugar industry or other pro fessional speculation. The remain ing contract holders were house wi ves, retired persons, engineers, retail proprietors, and members of other occupational groups.1 A re cent survey of traders in frozen orange juice concentrate futures showed that "executives, engi neers, accountants, doctors and the like accounted for some 40 per cent of the long side of the mar ket.":! Admittedly, in terms of business volume, professional speculators outdistance amateurs. But the professional image of the speculator obscures the fact that many ordinary people fall into this category. (An attempt can be 1974 THOSE FELLOWS WITH BLACK HATS - THE SPECULATORS 479 made to see every human action from the viewpoint of the uncer tainty inherent in it. Every act could therefore have a speculative dimension; every actor could be said to be a speculator. However, as used hereafter, the word spec ulator refers to the narrower con cept of a promoter, pacemaker, venturesome leader, whose eager ness, drive, initiative compel eco nomic improvements.) Before one sets out to brand speculators as "bad guys," one should be aware that he unknowingly may be out fitting his own friends, neighbors, and, perhaps, himself in black hats.

The Common Image Many are uninformed about who speculators are, but even more people misunderstand w'hat they do. The following picture of spec ulators is a commonly held one: Speculators actually do very little; they do not work for a living in the traditional sense. They keep strange hours. They sit staring at stock ticker tapes, money market quotations, a company's annual report, or the fi nancial page of the newspaper. They operate on the basis of hunches and great doses of luck. They are little better than gamblers. Speculators are not producers of goods. They do not add to the total wealth. Instead, they merely take a cut off the top of what others produce. They are parasitic, enriching themselves at the expense of others. 3 In trying to analyze the preced ing portrait, it becomes clear that many of the assertions are mere gossipy bits of "conventional wis dom." Consider the charge that speculation involves very little work of the traditional kind, un orthodox hours, and peculiar man ners of behavior. Speculators in stocks, bonds and commodities are indistinguishable from other busi nessmen on the basis of their hours. Moreover, one's schedule says nothing very conclusive about whether one "works" or not. What counts is the worker's ability to prod uce the end product, not the regularity of his hours. 4 Are odd business mannerisms really dis played by speculators? The asser tion is little more than a vulgar occupational slur undeserving of recognition or response. After one studies the speculator, it becomes apparent that most of what he does is purposeful, reasonable, and understandable. Only to the un initiated or ignorant do the actions of speculators seem bizarre.