Modern Soothsayers; B. Siegan

Although these observations may appear self-evident, many apparently disagree. They urge the adoption of restrictive laws over human conduct on the basis of their predictions of the future. They are our modern soothsayers, and their prophecies are widely disseminated these days, in the learned as well as the unlearned journals. The universities are filled with them where they are often called scholars. I find two things particularly disturbing: First, the advocacy of certain environmental and conser vation measures for the sake of "generations yet unborn." Second, Copyright 1974 Bernard H. Siegan Mr. Siegan is the author of Land Use Without Zoning and many articles on the subject. He practiced law for 20 years in Chicago before moving in 1973 to La Jolla, California where he is professor of law at the University of San Diego Law School. 202 forecasts of what materials and resources will be available to fu ture generations.

In the absence of special occult powers, it is rather foolish to de scribe the wants and desires of people who still have not arrived on this earth, the unborn genera tions. How many parents can know the course any of their children, whom they observe daily, will fol low? Such forecasting is usually part of some discussion pushing se 1 _ verer environmental regulations, and the world these writers and speakers contend the unborn will vvant usually is no different froln the one they seek for themselves. What it amounts to essentially, is that they are talking about only their own desires and preferences, not anyone else's. Of course, our children should inherit the best of all possible worlds, and it should include clean air and water, beaches, parks, open space, scenic areas. But it should also be one of good living and economic conditions; jobs, de sirable housing conditions and fewer slums, among other things.

Tomorrow's children will be stronger in body and mind if the economic circumstances of their parents and grandparents are sat isfactory. The world they inherit also will be infinitely superior if it is a freer one, without govern1975 MODERN SOOTHSAYERS 203 ment coercions stifling its citizens' aspirations. Accordingly, these discussions of the future are real ly about the present, the needs and priorities of our own society. Similarly many writers are mix ing in much of their own feelings and inclinations when they de mand strong conservation controls over our resources to prevent de pletions in the future. These peo ple frequently are hostile to tech nology and materialism, and would prefer a world more oriented to nature. They tend to ignore the problems that would be created for those having a different per spective. It is impossible to foretell the future on the basis of what exists today. The story of Reverend Thomas Malthus needs frequent retelling. He was a prominent Briti~h economist and sociologist, who predicted in 1798 that the food supply would not keep pace with population growth, and con sequently the world was doomed to widespread starvation, poverty and distress.

Although his analysis seemed plausible in light of the informa tion then available, his funda mental error was in making a pre diction on that subject. No matter how wise he was, he could not have envisioned that man would be so resourceful that a time would come when a government would pay farmers billions of dollars not to grow crops. We enjoy vastly more material comforts than our great-grand parents did because of human skill, ingenuity and creativity. The basic resources of the world have dwindled since then, but the knowledge and understanding of how to obtain, amplify and substi tute for them has increased enor mously. So long as incentives ex ist, man's wisdom will operate to create the new and improve the old. Historical experience discloses that substitutes or new products normally replace essential materi als and· resources as they become scarcer, and that when necessary, man will adjust reasonably well to a reduction in the supply of par ticular items. To live a life of self sacrifice based on other premises is an abuse of a precious organ ism: Man. Who not very long ago would have conceived of antibi otics, space travel, atomic energy, synthetic fabrics, plastics, TV, computers, lasers, j etpropulsion ?

To accommodate the modern soothsayers requires considerable inconvenience and hardship, espe cially on the part of .the less af fluent who depend for a better life on more production and growth. Soothsayers preaching such hu man sacrifice should lose their li censes. ~ HANS F. SENNHOLZ IH~ GR~AI D~PR~~~I~N ALTHOUGH the Great Depression engulfed the world economy some 40 years ago, it lives on as a night mare for individuals old enough to remember and as a frightening specter in the textbooks of our youth. Some 13 million Americans were unemployed, "not wanted" in the production process. One worker out of every four was walking the streets in want and despair. Thou sands of banks, hundreds of thou sands of businesses, and millions of farmers fell into bankruptcy or ceased operations entirely. Nearly everyone suffered painful losses of wealth and income. Many Americans are convinced that the Great Depression reflected the breakdown of an old economic Dr. Sennholz heads the Department of Eco nomies at Grove City College in Pennsylvania and is a noted writer and lecturer for freedom.