The Political Costs of Price Inflation; L. Fertig

Professor Walter Heller, who had viewed with unconcern the substantial monetarY inflation of the past many years, asserted some months ago that our pres ent trouble is· "the costly stagna tion arising out of. a shortfall in aggregate demand." Other dis tinguished professors lent their authority to this diagnosis. Pro fessor James Tobin of Yale de clared in an ingenious formula tion that "Monetary inflation is not the cause of current rising prices," and he agreed with Dr. Heller that a good prescription was a little more of the hair of the dog that bit you. Since monetary inflation, which is always and everywhere the basis of price inflation is being 1975 THE POLITICAL COSTS OF PRICE INFLATION 139 thus minimized, I conclude that some attention might well be paid to assessing the political costs of this dangerous process. Some people ask, "Why this heavy accent on curbing inflation when it is now plain that we are in the midst of a serious reces sion?" The answer to that ques tion is twofold. In the first place this recession and all its symp toms - rising unemployment, fall ing commodity prices, lower pro duction, and the like - are the direct result of the previous roaring inflation and constitute the penalty that must be paid if the dangerous inflation of past years is to be brought under con trol. This nation has been on a monetary binge, and our financial managers have created a vast ocean of paper money and credit which has had its baneful effect on markets.

The Danger of HyperInflation The second part of the answer to the above question is most im portant. We have the power to curb the inflationary process over the period of a year or two at the cost of recession and some na tional sacrifice. If we do so we will lay the foundation for a much sounder economy _. an economy that can produce efficiently and amply. But if we do not take re strictive measures now, then iIlevitably we will be headed for a roaring hyperinflation. This could well res ult in price increases five or ten times as great as those we have already suffered. So the choice is either recession and curbing the monetary inflation now versus a continuation of our past moneta.ry policy which could result in hyperinflation and na tional .disaster. It's plain, I believe, that the political, economic and social costs of inflation are all bound up to gether. It is impossible to disen tangle one from the other. They act and re-act upon each other as both cause and effect. For in stance, when a government in flates its currency to cover a sub stantial deficit, and after a time lag prices zoom upward, the nat ural result is social unrest. In turn, the frustrations of citizens ma.y cause them to succumb to the blandishments of politicians who offer economic nostrums which result in socialization, a decline in essential capital investment, and a fall in the standard of living.

This is precisely what happened in Britain after Mr. Heath chose to inflate in 1971 in order to achieve "growth" and to meet the money demands of the ·labor un ions. The results of the October 1974 election will surely be a giant step toward a poorer, Socialist Britain. While Wilson has a ma140 THE FREEMAN March jority of only three seats, he can count on many of the 14 Scottish and Welsh nationalists to vote with him on such crushing legis lation as a tax on wealth, in creased subsidies, price controls, and perhaps even on the nation alization of some large industries. No, we cannot unscramble the economic, social and political where parliamentary government prevails and every citizen is en titled to cast a ballot in free elections. However horrible may be the consequences of continued mone tary inflation, the penalties to be borne for a continuation of this policy are generally believed to be sometime in the future. Of course the distant future never presents the terrors of the immediate pres ent. So it is generally felt that we can rest on our oars a little. It is rather plea.sant, as even Professor Galbraith pointed out, to fight a possible recession by monetary ex pansion rather than to contain a present inflation by monetary restraint.

Economic Nationalism Ahead One of the most frightening political costs of continued infla tion, which isn't obvious to the general public, is the intolerable strain on our international alli ances and the frenzied flight toward economic nationalism. Nations try to offset the detrimental consequences of inflation by im port quotas, higher tariffs, sub sidies for export, and the like. But it is plain that in a world in which practically every naton is inflating - not every nation can have an export surplus. This kind of competition causes acrimonious debates among former friends. Many people used to glibly as sert that devaluation of a nation's currency is a prescription to cure its economic difficulties. Since its exports would be cheaper in world markets after devaluation, such a move, it was said, would redress its balance of payments. In the short run this would perhaps be so, but not in the long run. Im ports for such a nation become more expensive. Other nations can play that game too, by deval uating their currency. In time, real values of international prod ucts tend to re-establish their old relationship, all other things be ing equal.

Regardless of long-term effects, a nation in trouble because of in flation always seeks to gain a temporary advantage by any pos sible means. Under su·ch conditions the weakening and eventual break up of political alliances becomes very probable. At that point, the non-Communist nations of the West are in as grave danger as the weakened traveler in the Arc1975 THE POLITICAL COSTS OF PRICE INFLATION 141 tic who is no longer able to resist the attack of wolves. If, under these conditions major nations of the West succumb, there would be no return to parliamentary government. If Communist re gimes were established in any of the major nations of the West, it would be almost impossible to overthrow them and return to a free society. It's interesting to note that in another age - from the mid-19th Century to World War I - when nations voluntarily subjected themselves to monetary discipline, when internal adjustments of in flationary and deflationary forces were automatic, the break-up of the Western world was not threat ened. Those were the days -when nations were guided by the rules of neo-classical economics, when major wars were few and far be tween, and when nations adjusted themselves voluntarily to economic realities.

Defense Endangered One more point needs to be emphasized in discussing the in ternational repercussions of infla tion. The essential defense of the United States becomes endangered since it is politically impossible to cut total Federal expenditures without seriously eroding the de fense budget. While the defense budget becomes an easy target of attack, the very largest, the most over blown department in U.S. govern ment, which spends more than any other, is almost sacrosanct. The Department of Health, Edu cation, and Welfare, with a cur rent budget of $110 billion after severe trimming, still represents a 16 per cent increase over last year. I must note that the subsidy checks which go out from this Department to tens of millions of voters are a powerful political force in causing fear on the part of anyone in political life who wishes to drastically revise this budget. On the dom,estic effects of in inflation, the incontestable fact is that inflation undermines and cor rodes the economic, political and social structure of a nation. Its long-run effects are catastrophic.

In the long run it is death to par liamentary government itself. Consider for a moment the ef fect of continued inflation upon the political structure of this country. The government of the United States is no more stable than the emotions and ideas of the electorate who ultimately con trol the legislature and, as Mr. Dooley said, even the Supreme Court. Representative government in time responds to the insistent demands of an outraged public. What are the reactions of mil142 THE FREEMAN Ma,rch lions of people who find them selves frustrated and helpless in the face of rising prices which they cannot control? It is quite natural to opt for any short-term solution which, it is claimed by candidates for hjgh office, will ease their p,ain. That so-called solution may have nothing what ever to do with the cause of infla tion. But it may be plausibly pre sented and emotionally approved by the electorate.

The basic problem is simply this. Under great stress people tend to approve solutions which seem to provide short-term bene fits, but which will in the long run have tragic consequences. They are unwilling, for any length of time, to subject themselves to short-run costs and restraints. When people feel that way, their representatives in government subscribe to .current demands and provide short-run panaceas - re gardless of long-run effects. The terrible price we pay for political intervention to achieve short-run effects in an era of in flation is well illustrated by our current policy to meet the energy shortage. The government now sets the price of domestic "old oil" at less than half the true market price. It is estimated this cur rently saves the consumer about a nickel on a gallon of gasoline. But it also means that, because of the present lower consumer price and the increased consumer de mand, we are importing 500,000 barrels a day of higher-priced oil - thus becoming hostage to the Arab world.

Now, in the long run the way to defeat the Arab ,cartel is to increa,se the American price of oil. This would stimulate more exploration and production, and most important, it would stimu late energy substitutes - gasifica tion of coal, and so forth, which will become profitable to produce only when oil sells at a higher price. So what do we choose - a nickel ora dime now-or Ameri can independence of Arabs? There, in a nutshell, is a horrible exam ple of the baneful effect of gov ernment intervention during an inflationary period. 2-Party System Undermined Now this accent on immediate benefits encourages demagoguery. It politically rewards the dema gogue who promises most. In ef fect it tends to undermine the two-party system without which the United States would fall vic tim even more easily to· the de mands of minorities and to the chaos which frequently character izes multi-party government. The reason it undermines the two party system is because it becomes unprofitable and even politically 1975 THE POLITICAL COSTS OF PRICE INFLATION 143 dangerous for a major party to oppose insistent public demand.

Such opposition is usually penal ized at the polls, no matter how statesmanlike, how right, how wise the opposition may be. Today we .know that even if it is at all possible to curb inflation by a gradual approach over many years, some sacrifice, some re straint, some fortitude on the part of .the public is required. Will it be forthcoming· over many months and perhaps over several years? That is the question which must be answered before we know whether we can curb inflation. The crucial point is that the problem is a political one and not alto gether economic. During a long period of infla tion, when the public is distressed and frustrated, it inevitably looks around for a scapegoat. That un controllable desire to "hang some body for the fix we're in" is aided and abetted not only by dema gogic politicians but even by more moderate legislators who shudder at standing in the way of the steam-roller of public opinion.

Now who would you guess would be the most natural scape goat - the un-person, so to speak, who has few defenders and a host of critics? Why of course it's the Corporation-big business which we know is largely responsible for the fantastic increase in America'sstandard of living, and which is the income producer for most families. Muckraking is an old and hon ored tradition in this country, especially by leading commenta tors on TV and radio, by col umnists, by intellectuals in the academic fraternity, and many others who are important in the formation of public opinion. No matter how logical the an swer made by corporations to these attacks, no matter how tightly reasoned the defense, the opposition poisons public opinion and urges the politicians to pe nalize profits and capital invest ment. But it is an elementary fact that increasedcapita.l investment and profit opportunities for busi ness are the only possible way for a nation to improve its standard of living. No matter - N aderism will have its day, and the attempt will be made to inflame the· public against "excessive profits." The fact that profits were· inordinately low for a decade or more (as in the steel industry), or that high profits are necessary to attract capital to a most needed resource such as oil-all this seems to have little bearing upon public opinion during an inflationary· period.

When economists point to "phan tom profits" due to inadequate de preciation and to false inventory profits, the answer of politicians 144 THE FREEMAN Ma,rch and of the public when inflation is rampant is a mere shrug of the shoulders. The stated dollar in crease of corporate profits be comes ipso facto an indictment of corporations. EnvybEncouraged Not only are corporations ad versely affected by the public reac tion to inflation, but individuals and groups who are important in their performance of basic eco nomic functions are also subject to attack. During a high level in flation there is naturally a tre mendous amount of speculation. Speculators, short-sellers, com modity traders, all perform a function in the market. But they become targets for political at tacks to a great extent because they are successful in offsetting the effects of inflation. In fact, any group in society which becomes affluent under an inflation is open to attack.

In any analysis of this phenom enon, I would call attention to a basic psychological fact which is treated in masterly fashion by Professor Helmut Schoeck. His scholarly book, Envy, uncovers and reveals the social and polit ical implications of a deeply re pressed motive - envy. Professor Schoeck says "Envy is a drive which lies at the core of man's life and social being." Sociologists of modern liberal persuasion re fuse to admit this, but it seems to me a very meaningful assumption. During any violent inflation this basic human trait is exacerbated, and expresses itself in oppressive social and political action. Death of Parliamentary Government I have catalogued briefly some of the political consequences of continued inflation. But I do not believe that the public generally realizes what a corrosive social and political force it can be. As I pointed out earlier in this discus sion, politicians who appeal to the public seem ready to give them every kind of assurance and are often unscrupulous in recommend ing measures which will not only be unrelated to curbing the infla tion but will actually, in the long run, increase it. As it continues over the years, inflation becomes so unmanageable that finally there is one inevitable consequence. It is a distressing fact that under continued high-level inflation par liamentary government and the democratic process will die. The repressive measures essential to curbing hyperinflation can never be undertaken by freely-elected representatives in parliamentary fashion. It requires a dictator and the power of an army behind him to put into effect those measures which will curb a violent inflation 1975 THE POLITICAL COSTS OF PRICE INFLATION 145 over the years. The inevitable consequence is for the public to rely upon the promises of some man on horseback.

This is precisely what hap pened in Brazil and in Argentina. And this pattern will beyond doubt be repeated in other coun tries of the world when their in flation gets severe enough and be comes unmanageable. In Brazil in flation reached the proportion of 90 per cent annually, when parlia mentary government was elimi nated and the Army was called in. A similar set of circumstances prevailed in Argentina. In recent months we have been reading of the threat of military action pro posed even in the home of the Mother of Parliaments - Great Britain. The inevitable arrival of dictatorship when inflation is pro longed and severe enough is a dis tressing fact which we must face, but it is one to which the public has never been adequately edu cated. Now, since the penalties of con tinued inflation can be so tragic and since monetary restraint is at the heart of the solution to this great problem, what hope is there in the United States? There is a glimmer - only a glimmer of hope - in the fact that after January 1st gold can be owned by Ameri can citizens. The price of gold will hold up a mirror to the weakness or strength of the dolla.r. It will, to some extent, act as an auto matic restraint on dollar crea tion. But this is not enough. It is essential that we be permitted to make contracts with ea.ch other payable in gold, or in the dollar value of gold. Whether this is per missible now under our present laws is a grave question. But there is no doubt that in a free society contracts made in gold should be just as permissible as contracts made in any other commodity.

This - plus the ownership of gold - would act as a brake on the in satiable appetite of government for more and more printed paper money. It would be a most impor tant aid in the fight against in flation. It is quite easy, of course, to state some of the terrible costs political, social and economic - of continued inflation. If the public really grasped the tragic nature of inflationary consequences it would respond more readily to the dis cipline which would curb inflation. But it will never respond until there appears on the scene a polit ical leader who is willing to lay his career on the line and, as the saying goes, "tell it as it is." That leader may never· again be elected to high public office, but he will have performed a noble public duty which would in history earn the gratitude of this nation. , LEONARD E. READ Cause and effect, means and ends, seed and fruit, cannot be severed; for the effect al ready blooms in the cause, the end pre-exists in the means, the fruit in the seed. - Emerson THERE IS A REASON for our mess.