New Dimensions of Population Growth; R. Shannon

Russell Shannon New Dimensions of Population Growth A CHART in the January 1982 issue of Reader's Digest predicts an explo sive growth in the world's popula tion. 1 Are we in dire danger of over populating the world and causing widespread famine? It all depends on how you look at things. About a hundred years ago, an Englishman named Edwin Abbott wrote a book called Flatland. In it he depicts a two-dimensional world populated by lines, triangles, squares, other polygonal figures, and circles. 2 In a thoroughly charming man ner, Abbott explains how the Flat landers organized society (those with more sides had greater rank), how they recognized each other (someProfessor Shannon teaches in the Economics De partment, Clemson University. 332 times by feeling), and how they built their homes (with narrow entrances for the women, who were all straight lines and could readily damage other members of society).

What Abbott's imaginative book clearly shows is that the assump tions we make about society have a great deal to do with the sort of fu ture we can predict. That certainly holds true for the problem of.popu lation growth. In his recent book, The Ultimate Resource, economist Julian Simon presents data that cast severe doubt on the likelihood that the presently rapid growth of population will con tinue. At least twice in history-once when men first began to use tools, and again about 10,000 years ago, when they started to farm-popula tion grew very rapidly, only to taper NEW DIMENSIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH 333 off and grow at a much slower rate. 3 But what if the present trend does continue? How will we feed and clothe ourselves-not to mention providing homes and energy? Again, the outcome depends squarely on how we look at things what assumptions we make about mankind's ability to produce as well as to reproduce.

Consider a family sitting down to share an apple pie. If another person arrives to join them, there will clearly be less for those who got there first. Such a view as this lies implicitly behind the thinking of all those peo ple who urge drastic birth control measures. But that view ignores the produc tive potential of new members of so ciety. After all, can't they add to the world's output of goods and services? Can we, though, anticipate that they will add a proportional amount? Two hundred years ago, Thomas Malthus predicted that they would not.4 Thus was applied the famous "law of diminishing returns" which still plagues the thinking of people who fear rapid population growth. Malthus's prophecy, however, did not come true. Instead of Iiving standards falling as population in creased, they have gone up. As Ju lian Simon and others suggest, there are several important reasons why this has happened.

One is the advantage of division of labor which Adam Smith described. It enormously enhances our ability to produ,ce.5 Moreover, denser population makes both transportation and com munication easier. Simon points by way of exampl~ to the agonizing dif ficulties oftran$porting food in early America; he al~o quotes one source as noting that! "it was cheaper to move a ton of iron across the Atlan tic than to carry it ten miles through Pennsylvania. ,,~ Most importantly, Simon argues, the growth or population simply means there will be more people to enjoy what lif~ has to offer and to conceive of dramatic new ways to deal with our pfroblems. In Abbott's fanciful book, one of the residents of Flatland takes an excursion into the world of three di mensions. Thus the book can be used-as Carl $agan employed it for his TV series "Cosmos"-as a device to provoke us ipto trying to imagine what a fourth dimension must be like. 7 So, too, witq the matter of popu lation growth. I We must not allow ourselves to~ecome trapped into thinking solely in terms of a future whose dimensions are limited.

Over the lortg run, Simon notes, resource costs' have steadily fallen as man has used his creative wit to contrive new rp.eans of coping with scarcity. He se~s scarcity, in fact, not as a formidabl~ barrier but rather as an exciting challenge.

334 THE FREEMAN Simon has left behind the flatland of the folk who despair at population growth. In his hopeful vision, "the ultimate resource is people-skilled, spirited, and hopeful people who will exert their wills and imaginations for their own benefit, and so, inevi tably' for the benefit of us all."8 f) -FOOTNOTESIJohn Noble Wilford, "The People Boom Off the Chart!" Reader's Digest, January 1982, pp. 114-15. Too Many People? 2Edwin A. Abbott, Flatland: A Romance of Many Dimensions (6th ed.; New York: Dover Publications, 1952). 3Julian Simon, The Ultimate Resource (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981), pp.161ff. 4T. R. Malthus, An Essay on Population (New York: E. P. Dutton & Co., 1958), Book I, Chap ter I. 5Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (New York: Modern Library, 1937), Book I, Chapter I. 6Simon, p. 191. 7Carl Sagan, Cosmos (New York: Random House, 1980), pp. 262-63.

8Simon, p. 348. IDEAS ON LIBERTY THE ANSWER to the question, "What is over-population?" is that it is an imbalance between the number of people living and their food supply. This is a condition the world has faced during most of its history. As a result, we can answer the question, "Does the world face over-popula tion?" that it indeed does face over-population, hunger, and famine pro gressively as it becomes more and more socialistic. Socialism has a poor record when it comes to eliminating problems: its answer adds up to eliminating people. In fact, one of socialism's major and chronic prob lems is simply people. Socialism on the one hand destroys production, and, on the other, breeds up the least desirable elements. Its answer is to find the people at fault. Socialism always faces over-population; a free economy does not. Socialism decreases production and it also causes a decline in the middle classes numerically by means of oppressive taxation; it is thus a means of population control with respect to the productive middle classes.

On the other hand, socialism increases population among the lower classes by means of its welfare subsidies. Thus socialism has an imme diate double impact on population. A third impact of socialism on pop ulation then becomes its effort to control and limit population. ROUSASJ. RUSHDOONY,The Myth of Over-Population SINCE the time of Bismarck, most schemes for collectivism have started with health care. Far more support can be garnered for national health insurance than for nationalizing steel factories. Many claim that medical care is not, or should not be, a kind of industry, governed by the same laws of economics as manufactur ing, trade, and other service enter prises. The thought of doctors prof iting from human suffering, or of a patient being turned away because of a "negative wallet biopsy," pre dictably arouses indignation. Any discussion of economics in medical care is emotionally charged, because people naturally fear sick ness, dependency, and death. Their fear may be exploited to cloud their powers of reasoning, making health care an excellent hook for introduc ing socialist ideas. Though the term Jane M. Orient is in the private practice ,of medicine in Tucson, Arizona. She also is adjunct assistant pro fessor of internal medicine at the University of Ari zona College of Medicine.