Do Seat Belt Laws Work? J. Semmens

Proving that people suffer more severe and expensive injuries when they're not wearing seat belts belabors the obvious. No credible opponent of seat belt laws has disputed that seat belts can save wearers from death and injury. To present statistics that never were in doubt as the long awaited evidence fails to deal with the unresolved issue of whether requiring seat belt use is good public policy. Critics of seat belt laws have contended that they alter driver behavior in ways that increase the hazards for other users of the streets and highways. In particular, some drivers wearing seat belts may feel more assured of surviving an accident, and hence tend to drive more aggressively,thus raising the risk of collisionswith other vehicles and pedes trians. In the early 1970s, a few challenges to the preMr. Semmens is an economist for the Laissez Faire Insti tute in Chandler, Arizona. sumed safety benefits of increased auto safety regulations appeared in lightly read academic journals. In a 1970 issue of Applied Economics, L. B. Lave and W. W. Weber suggested that man dated safety devices (seat belts, better bumpers, collapsible steering wheels) might lead to faster driving that could offset the safety gains. In 1975, Sam PeHzman's "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulations" in the Journal of Politi cal Economy hypothesized that safer autos would lead to more aggressive driving that would endan ger other users of the roads.

This earlier research has been mostly ignored or dismissed in favor of adherence to more simplistic research that, unsurprisingly, proves that crash test dummies suffer more damage without safety devices. Crash-test dummies, of course, cannot have their driving behavior altered by a perception of greater crash survivability. Consequently, the research with dummies doesn't refute the hypoth esis that driver behavior might be changed and thus negate or reduce some of the anticipated safety gains. The plausibility of the aggressive driver hypoth esis cries out for more research. For example, Hawaii, the state with the most rigorously en forced seat belt law and the highest compliance rate in the nation, has experienced an increase in traffic fatalities and fatality rates since its law went into effect in December 1985. This is not to say that the seat belts are killing 281 WASHINGTONPOSTWRITERSGROUP vehicleoccupants.Clearly,enoughcrash-testdum mies have smashedinto enough auto windshields and dashboardsto convinceall but the mostobsti nate that wearing a seat belt is probably a good idea. What, then, is goingon in Hawaii?Well,we don't know. But the data do not support a smug assurancethat forcingpeople to wear seat belts is withoutpotential undesirableoutcomes.

A recent statistical study of states with and without seat belt laws was undertaken by Profes sor Christopher Garbacz of the University of Missouri-Rolla.This study seems to support the altered driver behavior hypothesis.Dr. Garbacz foundthat stateswithseat belt lawssaw decreases in traffic fatalities for those covered by the laws (typicallydrivers and front-seat passengers),but increases in fatalities for rear-seat passengers, cyclists,and pedestrians.Further, the patterns of changesin total trafficfatalitiesamong the states showed no consistent relationship with the exis tence of a seat belt law in the state. Thissuggestsa significantlylessoptimisticinter pretation of the impact of seat belt laws than the prevailingorthodoxywouldallow.Forcingunwill ingmotoriststo wearseatbeltsmaysavetheirlives and reducetheir injuries.Disconcertingly,though, seat belt laws appear to be increasingthe hazards for other usersof the roads.

Decidingwhetherthisapparentshiftin riskis an acceptablecost of a seat belt law is a far different propositionfrompretendingthat there is no signif icant cost.Policy-makersmay be satisfiedthat the benefitsofa seatbeltlawoutweighthe costs.How ever, a humane publicpolicydemandsthat those who may ultimatelypaythe costsbe warnedofthe potential increased risks they face on the streets and highways.To do less is to endanger some of the leastprotected usersof our roads. D 282 BOOKS THE FAIRTRADE FRAUD: HOW CONGRESS PILLAGES THE CONSUMERAND DECIMATES AMERICANCOMPETITIVENESS by James Bovard St. Martin'sPress, 175 Fifth Avenue,New York, NY 10010 1991 •330 pages •$24.95cloth Reviewed by Raymond J. Keating A uthor James Bovard sets the tone for this book by declaring at the very outset, "Fair trade is a moral delusion that could be leading to an economic catastrophe." The remaining pages supply reasoned, empirical sup port for such a claim.