COMPUTATION TO JUNE 30, 1904 (Extended on Government Estimates, to June 30, 1905)

The cost of war and warfare to June 30, 1904, computed from the expenditures for six months from June 30 to December 31, 1903, and completed by estimate to the end of the fiscal year, June 30, 1904, for seven years will be not less than $1,000,000,000. Extended by estimates submitted by the Secretary of the Treasury to June 30, 1905.

In my first analysis of the cost of war and warfare, July 4, 1902, it was proved that the average expenditures per head of population for twenty years antecedent to the Spanish war had been five dollars per head as follows:

President Hayes 1878 to 1881, average	$5.21
President Arthur, 1882 to 1885, average	4.73
President Cleveland, 1886 to 1889, average	4.43
President Harrison, 1890 to 1893, average	5.36
President Cleveland, 1894 to 1897, average	5.18
Average for twenty years of peace	$5.00

In this period and included in this average is the cost of what was called "the new navy" which destroyed the Spanish fleets.

In the subsequent five a years of war and warfare under McKinley and Roosevelt it was proved that the average expenditures per capita had been $6.61.

It was proved that the cost of war and warfare up to that date had been at the excess over $700,000,000.

In October, 1903, I prepared a second statement, extending the figures by estimate to December 31, 1903, in which it was proved that the cost of war and warfare to that date would be over $900,000,000.

The estimates used in that treatise have been more than justified by the official statements of the Secretary of the Treasury in his computations of the expenditures to June 30, 1904, by which it appears that the average, per head, of the present year will be $6.29.

It also appears that the estimates presented by the Departments for the fiscal year ending June 30, 1905, if not exceeded, will be $6.76.

The actual difference between the normal rate previous to the Spanish war and the average of $6.58 for seven years of active and passive war and warfare would be, per head, $1.58.

But during the eight years of Harrison and Cleveland, the cost of pensions and interest was, per head, $2.50.

In the fiscal year ending June 30, 1903, pensions and interest were less, per head, than $2.00. Reduction, 50 cents.

Both charges are now rapidly diminishing and the normal cost of government, without war and warfare, in 1903 and 1904, estimated at $6.29, would not have exceeded $4.29 on a basis of peace, order, industry, and good government, economically administered.

The cost of passive war and warfare is now over two dollars per head now being assessed on nearly 82,000,000 people, or over $160,000,000.

On the 30th of June, 1904, the cost of war and warfare, active and passive, will have been $1,000,000,000, and even if the appropriations for the year 1905 are not exceeded at the end of that fiscal year it will have been nearly $1,200,000,000.

We may take off $100,000,000 for expenditures now being made for a useful purpose which were not made before the Spanish war, such as Irrigation, National Parks, the expansion of the Department of Agriculture, and the possibility that the Consular Service may be reorganized, with suitable compensation to competent men.

At the lowest and most conservative estimates it is, therefore, proved that we have already spent on the Spanish war, as computed	$300,000,000
On criminal aggression and passive warfare in the Philippine Islands	600,000,000
Total	$900,000,000

And that before June 30, 1904, the total will stand at not less than $1,000,000,000.

It is also proved that unless the spirit of aggressive militarism can be stopped—which now costs two dollars ($2) per head—it will be over two dollars and a half ($2.50) in the fiscal year ending June 30, 1905, with a constant tendency to increase as time goes on.

In order to fix the relative increase in these charges, we may compare the different departments under the administration of President Harrison and those of the last fiscal year under President Roosevelt.

	Harrison per head	Roosevelt per head
Civil Service and Indians	$1.66	$1.72
War	.76	1.47
Navy	.42	1.02
Interest	.48	.35
Pensions	2.04	1.73
Average	$5.36	$6.29

We may next compare the average in President Cleveland's first term with the expenditures of the present fiscal year ending June 30, 1904.

	Cleveland per head	Roosevelt per head
Civil Service and Indians	$1.43	$1.73
War	.66	1.40
Navy	.24	1.17
Interest	.80	.29
Pensions	1.30	1.70
Average	$4.43	$6.29
At the interest and pension rates of 1904, deduct from the Cleveland figures	.21
Average	$4.22
Difference wasted		$2.07

The average expenditures of 1903 and 1904 have been $6.29. The estimates of 1905 come to $6.76.

Had these expenditures and estimates been free of the cost of continued aggression in the Philippine Islands, of the proposed defensive works in the harbors of the Pacific, and the waste upon battle-ships and other killing instruments which form a necessary part of the policy of imperialism and oversea-expansion, the entire cost of the Civil, Military, and Naval Establishments, Interest, Pensions, Irrigation, Forest Reservations, and support to Agricultural Science could not exceed $4.30 in the present fiscal year, and might even be less in the next.

At every point and by every method that these accounts can be analyzed and fairly stated it is proved that the cost of war and warfare has been, is, and will be over two dollars ($2) per head on a population now about 82,000,000 and rapidly increasing.

The taxpayers of the United States are now payng the penalty for the feeble administration that brought us into this condition and the forcible, feeble administration that as yet fails to get us out, at this rate of two dollars ($2) per head, or ten dollars ($10) per family, or over $160,000,000 per year, tending to increase.

If it is assumed that the liberation of Cuba from oppression could not have been brought about without the Spanish war, commonly computed at $300,000,000, then the following estimates may be modified.

If the Spanish war is proved not to have been necessary, then it is proved that with this waste of six years of war and criminal aggression, $1,000,000,000, the whole bonded debt of the United States might have been paid, with a large premium for the purchase of bonds not yet matured.

It may be estimated that, had this money been spent for any useful purpose, many measures now contemplated might have been partially or wholly carried out.

Had we expended in the seven years $200,000,000 on the improvement of rivers and harbors, how much more would remain to be done?

Had we expended $200,000,000 on the irrigation of arid lands, how much would remain unproductive?

Had we made up to the Southern States, for purposes of common education, a sum a little more than equal to that which the Western States have derived from the public lands which Southern States surrendered to the Nation, which sum is about $65,000,000, by assigning aid to them of $100,000,000, what would be their present condition in the abatement of illiteracy?

Had we appropriated only so much money as may be necessary to construct cruisers for the protection of commerce, such cruisers being necessary so long as predatory nations threaten it, might we not have saved $100,000,000?

What could we have done with the other $400,000,000, which we shall have worse than wasted before the end of the present year, except to have remitted useless and oppressive, obstructive taxes?

Or if the war with Spain is deemed one that could not have been avoided, of which the common estimate of cost is $300,000,000, should we not still have had a surplus of $100,000,000 to be applied to the reduction of taxation?

When the cost of our national government is again reduced to the average of twenty years before the Spanish war—of five dollars ($5) per head, less at least one dollar ($1) per head, or to four dollars ($4), for falling in of pensions and interest as it soon may be when the waste of militarism is stopped—what nation can compete with us in the productive pursuits of peace or in the expansion our commerce with the world?

If such are the proved conditions, then what does it cost each State or Territory at two dollars ($2) per head on the population of the census year 1900, plus two dollars ($2) per head on the subsequent increase—the actual cost being more and increasing?

The following table will show, the computation being made in round thousands, disregarding fractions, at the average rate of two dollars ($2), it being remarked that the richer States pay more, the poorer States less, because these indirect taxes fall wholly on consumers in proportion to their consumption.

Every family pays its proportion of this tax, which is imposed on beer, tobacco, spirits, fuel, timber, steel, iron, and other metals, clothing, leather, cordwood, sugar, salt, fish, potatoes, and every other article of necessity, comfort, or luxury that is now subjected to a tax or duty.

Indirect taxes are tolerated because those who pay them are not conscious of the burden. They are the resort of rulers who dare not expose their purposes.

The proportion by States and Territories on the census of 1900 is as follows:28

1	New York	7,300,000	$14,600,000
2	Pennsylvania	6,300,000	12,600,000
3	Illinois	4,800,000	9,600,000
4	Ohio	4,200,000	8,400,000
5	Missouri	3,100,000	6,200,000
6	Texas	3,000,000	6,000,000
7	Massachusetts	2,800,000	5,600,000
8	Indiana	2,500,000	5,000,000
9	Michigan	2,400,000	4,800,000
10	Kentucky	2,200,000	4,400,000
11	Georgia	2,200,000	4,400,000
12	Iowa	2,200,000	4,400,000
13	Wisconsin	2,100,000	4,200,000
14	Tennessee	2,000,000	4,000,000
15	North Carolina	1,900,000	3,800,000
16	Virginia	1,900,000	3,800,000
17	New Jersey	1,900,000	3,800,000
18	Alabama	1,800,000	3,600,000
19	Minnesota	1,800,000	3,600,000
20	Mississippi	1,600,000	3,200,000
21	California	1,500,000	3,000,000
22	Kansas	1,500,000	3,000,000
23	South Carolina	1,400,000	2,800,000
24	Louisiana	1,400,003	2,800,000
25	Arkansas	1,300,000	2,600,000
26	Maryland	1,200,000	2,400,000
27	Nebraska	1,100,000	2,200,000
28	West Virginia	1,000,000	2,000,000
29	Connecticut	900,000	1,800,000
30	Maine	700,000	1,400,000
31	Washington	500,000	1,000,000
31	Florida	500,000	1,000,000
33	Colorado	500,000	1,000,000
34	New Hampshire	400,000	800,000
35	Oregon	400,000	800,000
36	Rhode Island	400,000	800,000
37	Oklahoma	400,000	800,000
38	Indian Territory	400,000	800,000
39	Vermont	350,000	700,000
40	North Dakota	300,000	600,000
41	Utah	300,000	600,000
42	Montana	250,000	500,000
43	Delaware	200,000	400,000
44	Idaho	150,000	300,000
45	Wyoming	100,000	200,000
46	Nevada	50,000	100,000
		75,200,000	$150,400,000
	Taxes Free	1,100,000	2,200,000
	In 1900	76,300,000	$152,600,000
	In 1904	82,000,000	164,000,000

The increase in population from 1900 to 1904 would be 7 per cent. average, or from 1 per cent. in States from which emigrants pass, to 50 per cent, in Oklahoma, to which they come.

Now, if the tax gatherer went to the door of every house or to the dwelling place of every person, demanding two dollars per head in cash or ten dollars from each average family, hold long would this waste of warfare and militarism last?

If this tax of two dollars per head, or over $160,000,000 a year, were assessed directly upon the States according to law, to be collected mainly by a direct tax on property, or by a poll tax, how soon would it be abated? Before a single Congressional term had ended would not this waste be stopped, or every member who refused to stop it be relegated to a position where he could abuse a public trust no more?

With these questions, soon to be answered at the polls, I submit these computations to an anxious public, now constantly seeking for solution, and to sagacious politicians who are vying to save the Nation from farther dishonor and reckless waste on oversea-expansion and imperialism.

Boston Mass.,

January 23, 1904.